Will Democrats Pick Up Two Seats In Washington State Senate Special Elections?

There are five special elections in the Washington State Senate. These are critical elections for in Washington because Republicans hold a slim one vote working majority in the Senate. Two of the races (the 37th and the 48th) are a lock for Democrats at this point. The 7th District in Eastern Washington is a tough district but for the first time Democrats are running good challengers there. Most of the attention has focused on the 45th Legislative District. This is the race between Democrat Manka Dhinghra and Republican Jin-Young Englund. This is a district where Democrats (Roger Goodman and Larry Springer) hold two house seats. Manka Dhinghra has run an incredibly strong campaign. In the August primary, Dhingra garnered 51percent of the vote while Englund lagged ten points behind at 41 percent.  This result is counter to previous primary special elections in Washington State where Democrats have traditionally lagged behind in the primary and struggled to win in November. It adds to the data we are getting from around the country in special elections.  According to ALG Research, a national Democratic polling firm, there have been 29 legislative special elections around the country. In those elections, Democrats have substantially over performed past results. Since Trump’s inauguration, Democrats have run at an average of 12.1 points ahead of Hilary Clinton’s margin and 6.0 points ahead of Barack Obama’s 2012 margin. You can read there full analysis at: https://medium.com/@brian_and_zac/2017-special-elections-look-like-a-wave-70f883cd784d If these trends continue into November, the 45th is completely out of reach for Republicans. However, this kind of wave puts another district, the 31st Legislative District, in play for Democrats.   Again according to ALG Research:  We found the best backwards predictor of this year’s special elections was: · Average the district’s Presidential margin in 2012 and 2016 · Add 9.1 points — the average between how much Democrats are over-performing Clinton (12.1%) and Obama (6.0%) in special elections so far  Obama lost this district by 2 points in 2012. Clinton lost it by 9 points. So, If you do this math in the 31st Legislative District, the average of these Presidential margins is 5.5%. According to the data provided by ALG Research, this would put the 31st Senate seat in the potential win column.  The 31st Legislative District has been a Republican-leaning swing district for years. It generally performs in the low 40s for Democrats. However, Democrat Chris Hurst held a house seat for over a decade in the 31st before retiring in 2016.  Democrats have an excellent challenger in this race. Michelle Rylands is a former Military Police Officer in the US Army, works in local law enforcement and is a PTA President for the Auburn School District.   This is the kind of race that can sneak up on Republicans. However, it is also the kind of race that can also catch Democrats and their supporters flat-footed because of traditional Democratic performance in this district. But by all accounts, Donald Trump is ensuring this isn’t a typical year. He is demotivating Republicans and pushing Democrats to vote at a historical level. The question is: Will Democrats capitalize on this wave in the 31st Legislative District and cement their majority in the Senate in 2017?           

The August primary suggests Jenny Durkan will not be the Mayor...

I've read a couple articles suggesting that Jenny Durkan is the frontrunner in the Seattle Mayor's race. The numbers suggest otherwise. First, an August primary with record low turnout should favor the more conservative candidate. It's not surprising that Durkan had a strong showing. It is surprising that it wasn't stronger.  We have more ballots to count before we find out whether Cary Moon or Nikkita Oliver secure the number two spot but we do know they will pick up the votes of most of their credible challengers. The problem for Durkan in the primary is that the other FIVE credible candidates ran to the left of her and took 60% of the vote...in a more conservative primary. When you combine that with a higher turnout and a more progressive electorate in the fall, that spells significant trouble for Durkan. In 2013, exactly half of all registered voters voted for Mayor. Assuming that holds for 2017, we can expect roughly 230,000 ballots cast for Mayor this year. Of those, Durkan needs half or about 115,000. She only has 32,000 right now, maybe 44,000 when the ballots are all counted. So she will have to convince another 71,000 general election voters, who tend to be more liberal and younger, to vote for her instead of Moon or Oliver. And it's unlikely that the 100,000 primary voters who didn't vote for her the first time will suddenly defect to Durkan. I expect to see them coalesce behind what will inevitably be a progressive coalition led by either Moon or Oliver. The electorate has changed in Seattle and change is what the electorate wants. Candidates like Moon, Oliver and Farrell represent a different direction for the city. They are all new voices with new ideas. The three of them garnered close to a combined fifty percent. When you add the McGinn and Hasegawa votes and a more progressive electorate, it's not hard to believe that the candidate who came in second in the primary has the best shot at winning the general.  

17 wins, 5 losses

Seventeen wins, five losses. That is WinPower's record in the 2016 November elections.  We believe that political consultants should be more transparent about their win-loss record. We also believe the progressive community should do more analysis and evaluation of what worked and what didn’t. This is our take on that analysis of our own work. You can see a more detailed look at the individual races we worked on below. Here's our consultant teams’ overall record in the Washington State Legislature over the last 15 years. WinPower consultants have picked up 13 legislative seats from Republicans since 2000 while losing three seats.  WinPower consultants have lost one elected Democratic incumbent seat. That was Monica Stonier's seat in 2014. We were proud to elect Monica in 2016 in a tough fight in the 49th Legislative District. That win means every elected Democrat incumbent in the legislature that used WinPower is either in the legislature or retired. The elephant in the room. We are ready to fight. We will work with anyone who is up for the fight against Donald Trump's right wing agenda. Cities and states (especially states like Washington) will need to be a bulwark against the right wing, intolerant agenda of Donald Trump, the Republican Senate and the Republican Congress. We are ready. At the same time,  we will continue our work to elect more women and people of color to every level of the ballot. We will take chances on new progressive voices (even if their starting resources are limited) that contrast sharply to the vitriol we can expect out of a Trump presidency. At the same time, we are equally passionate about reform in the Democratic Party and progressive institutions. We will work to create more diversity, more inclusion and push organizations to truly work statewide. If you run a progressive non-profit where your only events involve dressing up and going to downtown Seattle, you are running a mutual admiration society not a statewide progressive political organization. It's time to get out of Seattle and out into every community in Washington State. The 2016 election should be a great opportunity to reassess and re-evaluate all of our work going forward.   We see three areas for immediate improvement: Voter engagement and Data. Washington State has abysmal turnout in every election except Presidential elections. As in, some of the worst voter turnout in the world. Democrats in Washington should care a lot more about that. One of the more disappointing outcomes this year was Tina Podlodowski's race for Secretary of State. She got it. She understood the necessary steps to engage new and low-frequency voters Democrats and progressive groups should have done more to get her elected. That said, we can still push harder for electoral reform. The first thing we need to do is move the August primary. We say we want people to vote but we hold an election in August. It would be like Safeway asking people to shop at their stores but only being open between 2 am and 4 am. We need more ballot boxes, pre-paid postage on ballot envelopes, same day registration, more translation, fewer elections, and in King County, fewer rejected ballots. We need organizers on the ground in battleground areas all the time, not just during the last six weeks of an election. We can take money from the blizzard of paper we throw at voters in the last two weeks and use it to improve the quality of our contacts with low-frequency and swing voters with consistent grassroots engagement.  At the same time, we need to improve our data collection on the ground with organizers and share that information quickly and easily with other Democrats. We need the latest consumer-enhanced data to mesh with our real-time on the ground data collection.  Bold progressive policy. We are not in Olympia or Washington D.C. So, we get that doing bold policy is infinitely harder than proposing it. That said, the days of incrementalism and triangulation should be over at this point. Economic justice, structural racism, public education and climate change are all too real and too urgent to tinker with at this point. Voters are catching on that politicians aren't really putting their shoulder to the wheel. Democrats need to be able to say specifically and concretely what they will do to improve people's lives.  Better creative and narrative. There is some art to politics. You can't tell from most campaign meetings Fundraising, who knows who, who has power, what endorsements did you get...that drives 99% of all campaign meetings. How are we going to tell our story to voters? That too often gets left off the agenda.  We must spend more time and energy in building an authentic and convincing narrative to help candidates win. There needs to be a balance in all these aspects of campaigns and, right now, the balance is off.   Winpower's key races this year The Supreme Court: We worked with Justice Yu, Chief Justice Madsen and produced a kickoff video Justice Wiggins. These races were heavily politicized in October with late money. It's clear that late money in a Presidential year doesn't work anymore. All three of these justices do an excellent job and deserved strong votes of confidence. Voters in Washington clearly agree with that assessment. A new Superintendent of Public Instruction: Voters got a great choice this year with two of the hardest working statewide candidates we've ever seen. In the end, Chris Reykdal's tenacity, clear message, education acumen and positive energy won out by a nose. We are proud to have worked with Chris and know he will do an excellent job in this role. A tough seat to hold: The Republicans wanted to take out Mark Mullet. They got in early and raised a lot of money. We held them off with Mark winning by a few hundred votes. Mark is a great candidate for the 5th District. He has two small businesses and four great daughters that keep him grounded. He ran another exceptional campaign in what proved to be a tough year in swing districts in Washington. Picking up two seats. On the Senate side, we worked with teacher-turned-CEO Lisa Wellman in her upstart challenge against Steve Litzow. Lisa had a great campaign team including Halei here at WinPower, Katy Ozog, Tana Senn, and Marcie Maxwell. This powerhouse team organized the effort that got the campaign up and running quickly, explained why Litzow was an obstacle to progressive policy, and showed why Lisa was the better choice. Lisa ended up winning handily. In the House, WinPower worked with new Representative-elect Kristine Reeves. Kristine leads economic development work with veterans within the Department of Commerce. She ran as a working mom who understood the challenges people in the 30th were facing. She did an amazing job balancing the work, the campaign and her family and will be a critical voice for people who live that balancing act every day. She is the only African-American woman in the State Legislature.  An Education Champion. In a tough battle for an open seat in the 49th Legislative District in Clark County, Monica Stonier won by almost ten percentage points. Monica’s race became a race about a larger issue: respect for teachers. Teachers from all over the state came in and helped ensure they had a champion in Olympia. WinPower has worked with Monica three times before and we are very excited to see her continue her successful public service in Olympia. She also increases the diversity in the legislature as a Latina and Japanese woman. The New Senators: We elected a couple new State Senators this year with Representative Kevin Van De Wege taking retiring Senator Jim Hargrove’s spot and Guy Palumbo taking the spot formerly held by Senator Rosemary McAuliffe. We are working with Representative Patty Kuderer who made an incredibly strong impression in her first two years as a State House member and hope to see her get appointed to Senator Cyrus Habib’s Senate seat in December.  A couple initiatives: We started the year helping to pass the Issaquah School District Bond with over 70% and worked to pass the Clark County Housing Levy with almost 60% of the vote. Voter Engagement: We worked with Democratic activists in South King County to increase voter engagement in the 11th, 30th, 33rd and 47th districts. We registered close to one thousand new voters in these districts. We won’t have full information on engagement until votes are certified but we are excited to continue this work and partner with other organizations doing this work across the state. We are in preliminary, exciting discussions with other groups around the state to push forward on these critical projects. Our other wins: Cathy Moore for Superior Court, Derek Stanford for State Representative, Mia Gregerson for State Representative, Jeannie Darneille for State Senator, Gerry Pollet for State Representative, Tana Senn for State Representative, and Zack Hudgins for State Representative. Some disappointments: On election night, Jason Ritchie was up by 300 votes in his race for the 5th Legislative District. He ran a strong grassroots campaign as one of the first Working Families Democrats in Washington State but came up short. We hope he runs again. He is a great candidate with great values and would do an excellent job in Olympia. This is a race where Democrats and progressives should have done a lot more. Sharlaine LaClair, a member of the Lummi tribe, ran a very strong race up in the 42nd Legislative District for a first-time candidate. She also endured challenges that a lot of other candidates don’t have to face including racist death threats. The man was charged with two felonies for cyberstalking and malicious harassment. http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/washington-man-charged-with-cyberstalking-after-texting-racist-death-threats-to-house-candidate/. Tanisha Harris, a CASA program specialist at the YWCA ran a strong first time campaign for the Clark County Council and should be credited with ousted right wing Clark County Councilmember David Madore in the August primary. Brook Valentine, an education champion running her first campaign came up short in the 47th Legislative District. We hope both of them run again. Finally, we did two direct mail pieces helping a campaign to oppose a strong mayor in the town of Snohomish but it looks like we came up about ten votes short.  All in all, a long and rewarding year in terms of our work at WinPower but obviously a crushing disappointment at the national level. Thank you to all our clients and all of our allies in fighting for our progressive values and the Democratic Party in Washington State.   Halei and John

Primary Election 2016

80 percent winning. People always ask us how we did in the elections. The simple answer is really well. 80% of our candidates either won or got through the primary. While that's pretty good, we are more excited about some of the work on particular races. WinPower staff is a little tired today but proud of the things we've accomplished.Issaquah School BondThe year started working on the Volunteers For Issaquah Schools bond. A $533 million bond was critical to deal with overcrowding as the eastside of King County's population bust through the seams. Clearly, our message resonated as the campaign received over 70% of the vote.Beth DoglioIn May, we had a first. In an open legislative seat, Beth Doglio filed in the open seat vacated by Rep. Sam Hunt. No one ran against her. Beth is a thirty-year powerhouse organizer who has worked with labor, choice, the environment and as been active as a volunteer in Olympia schools. We are not saying that if you work with WinPower Strategies, you will run unopposed. But, it could happen!Taking Back The SenateGuy PalumboGuy called us when he heard that Senator Rosemary McAuliffe might be retiring. Reps. Derek Stanford and Luis Moscoso had both said they were staying in the House. At the last minute, Luis ran anyway. Guy is not one to shy from a fight and decided to keep campaigning. Our first poll showed Guy 9 points down. But, Guy connected with voter frustration with traffic congestion. The 1st District has some of the worst traffic but received very few projects in the latest transportation package. Guy has some great ideas for targetting mailings within the district and we did an fun digital ad shot solely on a GoPro. After the first returns, Guy is 50 votes behind. We will keep watching.https://youtu.be/sc897i9qPx4Mark Mullet, Lisa Wellman and Tim ProbstMark is the owner of Zeek's Pizza and Ben and Jerry's. He is also the father of four daughters. We talk about those things alot! He is also one of the most effective legislators in the Senate bringing many projects back to East King County including a new overpass at Highway 18. Even though the GOP pummeled him with negative ads in the last few weeks, Mark still finished strong at over 50% of the vote. If you haven't met Lisa Wellman, you need to. She is an incredibly accomplished teacher turned CEO who is running a very strong race against incumbent Steve Litzow. She ended the night only 169 votes down from Litzow with more ballots coming in this week.WinPower had worked on the candidate side with Tim Probst in 2008, 2010 and 2012. This time, we worked on an independent campaign highlighting his opponent Lynda Wilson's terrible record on issues affecting working families like minimum wage, gender pay and family leave. Tim ended up over 50% on Election night with a great shot of returning back to the State Senate. A Woman's Place Is In The House And The SenateWe already talked about Lisa Wellman who is running an excellent campaign for the State Senate. We also have some great candidates for the House and for County Council around the State.Kristine ReevesCurrently leading over incumbent Teri Hickel in the 30th Legislatiivd District, Kristine Reeves is starting strong. Kristine currently serves as the Director of Economic Development for the Military and Defense sector for the state of Washington. She lives with her husband, Camron, and their two young children in Federal Way. She made a strong case for helping working families who struggle with the challenges this economy throws at them. She has a great track record working with Patty Murray and in the Governor's office and will make an excellent legislator. If she wins, she will be the only African-American women in the state legislature.Tanisha HarrisTanisha is running for the Clark County Council. She is currently a CASA Program Specialist for YWCA Clark County, where she works everyday with individuals and families who are involved in the Clark County family court and dependency court systems.  Previously, she worked for the Evergreen Public Schools as a Multicultural Youth Coordinator and Coordinator of Personnel and Equity Programs. On Election night, she was leading a three way primary with 46% of the vote which is a 15 point lead over the next vote getter. Sharlaine LaClairWe started working with Sharlaine during filing week when she jumped into the race because no other Democrats were stepping up. Sharlaine is currently the Lummi Nation Service Organization Ventures Executive Director, where she promotes prosperity through philanthropy, job creation, entrepreneurship, community partnerships, and a small business incubator. She topped two other opponents to face Luanne Van Wuerven in the 42nd (Bellingham, Ferndale) in the fall.Monica Jurado StonierMonica is the only elected incumbent that WinPower consultants have lost in the legislature. She lost one of the closest House elections in 2014. We are excited to correct that record this year. Her family moved to the 49th and she decided to run for the open seat vacated by Rep. Jim Moeller. Monica is a educator and was a very strong champion for public schools in her term in Olympia. She came out ten points above her closest opponent to lead the field in this seat in the 49th (Vancouver). Chris ReykdalChris faced a tough, crowded field in his race for the Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction. He was one of WinPower's first clients and runs as a strong, progressive champion for fully funding education, increasing community and technical education and simplifying our student testing. He will face Erin Jones in the fall. We got to do a great TV ad that featured Chris in his original first grade classroom in Snohomish, Wa. You can see it here:https://youtu.be/lt1rc8VQNncA couple disappointmentsThere are always some races we wish went the other way. Dave Upthegrove ran a strong campaign for Lands Commissioner. He was the first to come out and oppose using state lands for coal exports but came up short in his first statewide race. My friend, Marcus Courtney, did a great job pushing bold innovative progressive ideas in the 43rd legislative race. He will continue to be a force on economic justice issues in whatever he chooses to do next.Thanks to all of our clients for working with us. You can learn more about WinPower at: WinPowerStrategies.comHalei, Eileen and JohnWinPower Strategieshttp://winpowerstrategies.nationbuilder.com/

Lisa Wellman for State Senate

Lisa Wellman began her career as a teacher, but after learning the program, she changed course into the tech industry.  She was recruited to Apple Computer and eventually worked her way to VP of worldwide creative markets.  Currently she's Managing Director for nsquared solutions. Lisa helped fund community infrastructure to attract new business and jobs to Washington while serving on the Community Economic Revitalization Board.  She sits on the Public Works Board helping fund vital infrastructure to assure public health and safety. Lisa has spent years helping to build small business and spur economic growth in our region.  She's served on the board of Washington C.A.S.H. (Ventures), as a member for the Washington Business Alliance, and as a mentor to the next generation of business leaders at the Foster School at UW. 

Tanisha Harris for Clark County Commissioner

Born and raised in East Vancouver, Tanisha Harris is now a CASA Program Specialist for the YWCA Clark County.  Previously, Harris worked for the Evergreen School District as a Multicultural Youth Coordinator and Coordinator of Personnel and Equity Programs. Tanisha has been recognized for her work and commitment to her community, receiving the Val Joshua Racial Justice Award, Fort Vancouver Trust General George C Marshall Public Leadership Award, and Vancouver Business Journal 40 Under 40.  Tanisha is running because it's time for the Clark County Council to put families first.  There's been too much bickering and controversy on the Council and it's time for real leadership that will deliver results for the children and families that make her community great. 

Brooke Valentine for House

Brooke Valentine is a PTA mom, education advocate, and community leader running for the State House in Washington's 47th LD.  Brooke recently served as Washington State PTA's Legislative Director and as co-chair of the Kent Area Council PTA's Clothing Bank, which provides clothing for children of low-income families.  Brooke has also led the successful levy campaign ran by Citizens for Kent Schools. After attending college in Riverside, California, Brooke worked for Union Pacific Railroad and then as a REALTOR in South King County for over a decade.  As she volunteered with Girl Scouts and her children's elementary school PTA, she realized her interest was advocacy.  She went on to work for League of Education Voters and for Northwest Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports (PBIS) Network, an organization providing vision-driven leadership in policy, guidelines, and practice of research-based framework for creating safer and more effective schools. Brooke lives in Black Diamond with her husband, Rob, and their two teenage children, Wyatt and Aspen.  Rob has worked for Alaska Airlines for 17 years and their children attend public schools in Covington. 

Mark Mullet for State Senate

Mark Mullet was born and raised in Tukwila, graduating from Foster High School in 1990.  Mark currently owns the Zeeks Pizza Restaurant and Ben and Jerry’s Ice Cream store in Issaquah, and has been the State Senator representing the 5th Legislative District for the past four years. While in the State Senate he has delivered important investments to his district, including transportation and parks projects. Mark has four daughters between the ages of six and thirteen. All four girls are enrolled in the Issaquah Public School system.

Kristine Reeves for House

Kristine lives with her husband, Camro, and their two young children in Federal Way.  A working mom, Kristine currently serves as the Director of Economic Development for the Military and Defense sector for the state of Washington, focusing on the public and private elements of economic development as it relates to infrastructure, suppliers and contractors and community advocacy and public support organizations for the US Military in our state.   Kristine is dedicated to supporting the transition of military personnel from active duty service to private sector industry jobs in Washington.  Because of her work, Washington has developed some nationally recognized models for connecting public and private resources in support of transitioning service members.Kristine received her bachelor’s degree in political science from Washington State University and her master’s degree in Organizational Leadership from Gonzaga University.    

Chris Reykdal for OSPI

Chris was born and raised in Snohomish Washington and lives with his wife Kim and their two kids in Tumwater. Chris began his professional career as a school teacher, which has led to a lifetime commitment to public service and public education. He has experienced education from nearly every perspective. He served on a local school board, and spent the last fourteen years as an executive in our state’s public community and technical college system. Chris was elected to the State Legislature six years ago and currently serve as Vice-chair of the House Education Committee. His wife is a career and college readiness counselor.  She also serves as a school board member in the Tumwater School District.  Reykdal would be the first Superintendent of Public Schools in nearly 30 years to actually have kids in our public schools.